London is Dead

While I claim no particular expertise regarding UK politics or the global economy, my political instincts and prognostications have served me well this year, and I thus feel more adventurous in commenting upon the UK's recent "decision" to leave the European Union than I otherwise might as a relatively clueless Yank. Regardless of the numerous faults of the EU as an institution, it's hard to read this result as anything other than a potential catastrophe for the United Kingdom.

Preexisting divisions between the various parts of the UK have been greatly increased and highlighted, as Northern Ireland and Scotland are faced with the unappetizing prospect of being dragged out of the EU kicking and screaming due to English votes. Scottish independence is back on the table, and a united Ireland suddenly looks delightfully plausible. It's difficult to foresee the long term impact of the UK going the way of the USSR, but certainly we're living in interesting, historic times.

That is to say, of course, that we're living in a period of chaos and turbulence, and the vaguely absurdist rise of Trump in the US is another symptom of the breakdown of the current political order. It's almost impossible for me not to feel a certain schadenfreude towards the former British Empire, though doubtless the fallout will greatly threaten the vulnerable citizens of that country and others. Likewise, Trump's rise has produced a gratifying panic and confusion among America's political class and punditry, but is terrifying in so far as it represents a rehabilitation of fascism and a direct provocation of violence against minority populations. The rise of ethno-nationalist reaction is an evil which must be opposed with all available political weaponry, but as it increasingly changes the balance of political forces in every country it impacts, and throws their systems into disarray, an opportunity to create a more durable, progressive, and inclusive political order should not be missed. If a war of bombs and guns does not yet arrive, a war for the future of the world is nonetheless in progress, and capitulators have no place.